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Electronic boards showing stock information are pictured at the stock market, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, November 5, 2020. "Such an escalation could lead to increased oil prices, concerns about oil supply, and the potential for a global economic downturn." In the unlikely event the United States sends troops into the Middle East, Belote expected a $20 jump in oil prices, "if not more". "Israel has better relations with other Arab countries compared to then," JP Morgan private bank strategist Madison Faller said in a note, "and global oil supply is not as concentrated." Reuters Graphics5/ TECH JITTERSWhat's good for oil stocks can be bad for big tech.

Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Hamza Meddeb, Malcolm H, Brent Belote, Belote, JP, Madison Faller, Nadia Martin Wiggen, Alessia Berardi, Amundi's Berardi, Trevor Greetham, Morgan Stanley, Jeff, London's Greetham, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, Oil, JP Morgan, Svelland, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Reuters, Swiss, Royal, Aegon, Deutsche Bank, Aerospace, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Israel, Gaza, Beirut, IRAN, Iran, U.S, United States, Arab, Turkey, Ukraine, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Suez, London

SINGAPORE/LONDON Oct 13 (Reuters) - Global shares slipped on Friday while assets considered to be safer havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries rose as traders retreated from market risk as conflict in the Middle East intensified. MSCI's broadest index of global equities (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.3%, while Europe's Stoxx 600 share index (.STOXX) slid 0.4%. Brent crude oil futures jumped 2.7% on Friday to $88.29 a barrel, on track for a 4.3% advance this week. Spot gold gained 0.8% on Friday to $1,885 an ounce, set for a gain of 2.4% over the week. The risk-off mood also prevailed in the currency market, with the dollar holding on to most overnight gains.

Persons: Trevor Greetham, Treasuries, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Edwina Gibbs, Susan Fenton, Kim Coghill Organizations: Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Middle, Gaza, Hamas, Ashkelon, Israel, Brent, U.S, Baltic, Asia, Japan, MIAPJ0000PUS

Data suggests recession risks remain high, but wages and U.S. and European interest rates are also still rising - so stick or twist? Here are five big calls investors are now making. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah said she maintained her view that government bonds would do well with recession still likely by year-end. Reuters Graphics4/ FRAGILE CHINASpluttering data, property market woes and meek economic stimulus have also busted new year bets of a Chinese mini-boom. Principal Global Investors' Shah said she still expected commodities to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. slowdown plus China slowdown should mean weak demand."

Persons: Bonds, Francesco Sandrini, Seema Shah, JP Morgan, Trevor Greetham, Florian Ielpo, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Morgan Stanley, Shah, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reuters, Global Investors, Royal London Asset Management, Lombard, Swiss, Bank of America, Fed, FX, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: bitcoin, Europe's, British, tatters, Japan, CHINA

☆ Global markets in H1: Banks vs the machines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Linking it all has been the relentless rise in interest rates, which was exactly what battered markets in 2022. But just that this time has been different due to an unshakeable view that the end of the cycle is near. A 12%, or $6 trillion, rally in value of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), (.FTAWORLDSR) although it has been ominously top heavy. Thanks largely to ChatGPT, the AI boom has seen the 'Big Tech' giants enjoy a combined surge of 70%. There have also been around a total of 90 interest rate hikes this year by central banks globally versus just 17 cuts.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Lehman, Trevor Greetham, Gold, Viktor Szabo, Tayyip Erdogan's, haven't, bitcoin, Binance, Milla Savova, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tom Wilson, Rashmi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nikkei, LONDON, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, Meta, Nvidia, Royal London Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan's, Silicon Valley Bank, behemoth, UBS, Treasury, Wall, BlackRock, Commodities, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, El Salvador, Sri, Zambia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Argentina, Japan, Egypt, Nigeria, London

☆ Investing in AI: how to avoid the hype
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies AI boom brings fresh challenge for investorsAI-themed stocks highly valuedStick with big tech not AI stocks - investorsLONDON, May 26(Reuters) - Experienced tech investors are hunting for undervalued opportunities in an over-valued space. Investors are chasing exposure to generative AI, the technology run by ChatGPT that learns from analysing vast datasets to generate text, images and computer code. Businesses are trying to use generative AI to speed up video editing, recruitment and even legal work. GAM's Hawtin said he has also hunted out companies that provide the "picks and shovels," necessary for enabling new AI technology. Amazon's Bedrock service, for example, lets companies customise generative AI models rather than invest in developing them themselves.

☆ Wouldn't be surprised if we have to get a lot more defensive in the second half: Asset manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWouldn't be surprised if we have to get a lot more defensive in the second half: Asset managerTrevor Greetham of Royal London Asset Management discusses the economic outlook and the impact of the recent banking crisis.

Summary U.S. bonds set for worst month since SeptWild swings at start of year may continueLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - March madness? After a euphoric January was followed by a somber February, with bonds and equities selling off as strong data renewed rate-hike bets, more wild swings could be next for world markets. February fallsData on Friday showing a key inflation U.S. gauge accelerated last month stoked rate hike bets. The ECB lifted its key rate by 300 basis points since last July to 2.5%. If upcoming data weakens, markets could resume their bullishness, Yardeni Research said.

☆ Rate jitters extend February flop for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, February 16, 2023. "The economic data has been much more resilient than we all thought (it would be) and we have to accept that." "A bear market rally driven by expectations that inflation would drop and interest rates would peak out may be over," said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Management. "The big call this year will still be (a) recession," he added, as "interest rates go higher," in a move that would eventually spark "an earnings driven bear market (that) hasn't started yet." New Zealand's central bank also raised interest rates by 50 bps on Wednesday to a more than 14-year high of 4.75%, flagging more monetary tightening to come.

Reuters Graphics3/ RE-EMERGING MARKETSWhisper it, but the emerging markets (EM) bulls are back after 2022 delivered some of the biggest losses on record. Credit Suisse particularly likes hard currency debt and DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, AKA the "bond king", has EM stocks as his top pick. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. inflation to decelerate to 3.1% by the end of 2023. Valentine Ainouz, fixed income strategist at the Amundi Institute, predicts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will end 2023 at 3.5% from around 3.88% currently. Reuters Graphics5/ EQUITIES: SELL NOW, BUY LATEREquity investors hope a V-shaped year for the global economy will see stocks end it comfortably higher.

British Pound Sterling and U.S. Dollar notes are seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. Income tax cuts, a drop in property taxes, tax-free shopping for overseas visitors and the scrapping of a planned corporation tax rise are all aimed by the government at giving households and businesses a boost. It was last down 1.36% against the dollar at 1.1106 , a new low since 1985. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) dropped 1.3%, hitting its weakest level since July 15, but shares in UK homebuilders jumped after Kwarteng announced changes to property stamp duty. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Alun John Editing by Alexander Smith and Frances KerryOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Reactions: Britain's finance minister unveils "mini budget"
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Britain's blue-chip stocks (.FTSE)remained mired in the red, in line with a broader equity-market decline. FOREX: Sterling extended losses, falling 1.9% on the day to around $1.1047, having hit a new 37-year low earlier on. British homebuilders and household goods makers hit session highs, buoyed by the prospect of consumers getting tax breaks. The tax-cutting budget and ‘go for broke’ growth aims are unlikely to change the longer-term bearish GBP trend." If you get more fiscal stimulus and less monetary stimulus, that’s something that’s buoyant for the currency.

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